• Pitchmap: run Monte Carlo simulations across your Process Improvement assumptions

    Posted on February 9, 2012 by in Monte Carlo, New functionality

    We’ve released our next iteration of the application.

    It contains a project costing module and runs a Monte Carlo simulation over the assumptions and tells you how pessimistic your assumptions would need to be before the ROI becomes negative. So, for example, Pitchmap can tell you that over 5 years your expected ROI for migrating a reconciliation process is $1M but it will also say that you have an 86% chance of being ROI positive. That is, based on the assumptions you have entered, in 14% of the samples in the Monte Carlo simulation your ROI is negative. By tightening up your assumptions, your expected ROI may not change but the point at which you become ROI negative might.

    This lets you succinctly describe any number of scenarios using two key numbers: The ROI at the 50th percentile of your assumptions and the percentile at which your ROI goes negative. This is straightforward for your business case approvers to understand and now easy for you to do.